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☆ The stock rally is masking stagflation risk raised by the latest GDP report, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan says the recent stock rebound driven by robust earnings masks looming stagflationary risks. The soft landing narrative is challenged by the first-quarter GDP report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe recent rally in the stock market, bolstered by a wave of upbeat earnings, is glossing over a host of risks raised by the latest economic data points, JPMorgan said this week. Jamie Dimon and other experts are sounding the alarm, saying the US might be headed for a 1970s-style scenario, complete with a stock market crash.

Persons: —, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, hasn't, Jamie Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Microsoft

☆ Tesla's earnings report was worse than expected, but Elon Musk has a plan
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at Tesla's earnings report and what comes next for the EV maker. The big storyTesla's turnaround planJADE GAO/AFP via Getty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng; BIBad news: Tesla's earnings report was worse than expected. AdvertisementPerhaps that's why Musk spent so much of the earnings call discussing autonomy and the progress made with Tesla's Full Self-Driving software . Musk told analysts on the earnings call that Tesla is the majority of his work . If investors vote against the package at Tesla's annual meeting in June, who knows where Musk — and his AI ambitions — will end up .

Persons: —, Chelsea Jia Feng, Elon Musk, Tesla, Musk, hasn't, Insider's Linette Lopez, Matt Anderson, Tyler Le, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Cathie, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, Gerard Julien, Elon Musk's, Carl Godfrey, Joe Biden, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Getty Images, Tesla, Getty, EV, Musk's, Intel, Micron Technology, Microsoft, BI America, Amazon, Boeing, Meta, IBM, US Locations: Delaware, Outflows, United States, China, Idaho, New York, London

☆ The stock market 'correction' is not over yet, JPMorgan’s Kolanovic says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Don't be fooled by Monday's bounce, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic warned. The S & P 500 entered the week down more than 5% from an all-time high reached earlier in the year. A correction is generally defined as a 10% drop from a 52-week high. "Market concentration has been very high, and positioning extended, which are typically red flags, at risk of a reversal." "The combination of these macro factors increases the downside risks, and suggests that more Defensive trading should be appropriate," he added.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, —

☆ MicroStrategy's debt-fueled bitcoin purchases helping drive froth, raising risk of downturn, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"In our mind, these debt-funded bitcoin purchases add froth to the current crypto rally by raising the risk of severe deleveraging in a potential downturn in the future," he added. MicroStrategy raised $604 million from the sale of converts on March 18, and another $800 million on March 8 . The latest purchases mark an acceleration from the fourth quarter pace, when MicroStrategy bought more than $1 billion of bitcoin. Originally launched as an enterprise business software company, Microstrategy has been buying bitcoin and holding them on its balance sheet since 2020. It largely trades as a proxy for the price of bitcoin, and in February of this year leaned into that, rebranding itself a Bitcoin development company.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, MicroStrategy, Microstrategy, Kolanovic, bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Momentum Locations: bitcoin, cryptocurrencies

☆ JPMorgan's Kolanovic doubles down on bearish stance, says a 'second inflation wave' could take hold
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market's strong start to 2024 could be short lived as the door for inflation to come back remains wide open, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. The S & P 500 is coming off its first weekly loss in six weeks. Year to date, the S & P 500 is up about 4% and reached an all-time high earlier this month above 5,000. "Optimism now is quite high and some describe the current regime as 'parabolic stock markets' and 'platinum-locks,'" he said. According to CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey , JPMorgan has an S & P 500 target of 4,200.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC Pro's, Survey, JPMorgan Locations: Japan, Germany, Europe

☆ Recent stock gains may have been too 'explosive,' but falling bond yields should continue to boost equities, technical strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Technical strategist Katie Stockton said that recent stock gains have been "explosive." But falling bond yields should continue to provide a boost to stocks if the pullback persists. The surge in equities, Wilson explained, is mostly a consequence of falling bond yields. Key government bond yields have pulled back sharply from 16-year highs in recent weeks. She said signs flashing in the TLT Treasury ETF point to an extended period of bond yields correcting from recent highs.

Persons: Katie Stockton, Stockton, —, November's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, CNBC Wednesday, TLT Treasury Locations: Stockton, TLT

☆ The stock market's latest rally is about to fizzle amid a barrage of concerns, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market's latest rally is set to fizzle, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. He highlighted a number of looming concerns for investors, from valuations to higher-for-longer interest rates. AdvertisementAdvertisementLast week's stock market rally is about to fizzle, according to JPMorgan's chief global markets strategist Marko Kolanovic. While stock market investors would like to see interest rates drop, the reason behind any potential cut is what matters the most. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson reiterated his view on Monday that the recent rally in stocks is nothing more than a bear market rally.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, —, Marko Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Organizations: Service, Markets, Federal Reserve Locations: fizzle

☆ US stocks climb as investors look to continue momentum after best trading week of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks climbed as traders tried to keep the rally going following the best week of 2023. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks traded higher Monday after each of the major indexes recorded their strongest weekly performances of the year last week. "We think last week's rally in stocks was mainly a function of the fall in back-end Treasury yields," Wilson wrote in a Monday note.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Mike Wilson, Wilson, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq

☆ After a miserable October, the setup for stocks in November is looking better
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a miserable October, the setup for November is looking better. Barring a huge rally Tuesday, October will be the third-consecutive down month for the S & P 500 — that's unusual. 1 month for the S & P 500. It's just that stocks have sold off during earnings season because of the cautious outlook being projected on many earnings calls. The chances the S & P 500 would be down four months in a row is very small.

Persons: —, That's, Nicholas Colas, Colas, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, It's, hasn't, Jonathan Krinsky Locations: DataTrek, Israel, BTIG

☆ Banks in Japan are primed to do well going forward. What's driving them and how to play the trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

One place in the world stands as a beacon for investors in bank stocks: Japan. Japanese banks have outperformed in a year when U.S. banks have come under pressure both from rapidly rising interest rates and the regional banking crisis last spring. "We've been bullish on Japanese banks for a long time," said Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro. Part of what's driving the bull case for Japanese banks is the country's yield curve. While the U.S. and other developed economies contend with an inverted yield curve that's weighing on financial profit margins, Japan continues to have a positive yield curve.

Persons: We've, Chen Zhao, Zhao, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Japan's, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Regional Banking, Treasury, Japan Post Bank, Chiba Bank, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, Resona Holdings Locations: Japan, U.S, EWJ

☆ Beware of these expensive stocks that analysts don't like
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

For context, the longer-term P/E ratio for the past 12 months of the S & P 500 is about 21 times trailing earnings. That compares to a five-year average P/E ratio of 19.87. The life insurer's 12-month trailing P/E ratio came in at 31.99, compared to its five-year average P/E ratio of 13.62. For context, the longer-term P/E ratio for the past 12 months of the S&P 500 is about 21 times trailing earnings. The life insurer's 12-month trailing P/E ratio came in at 31.99, compared to its five-year average P/E ratio of 13.62.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, David Vogt, Tyson Foods, Jefferies, Henry Schein, Michael Bloom, Darla Mercado, Angela Weiss, HSIC Henry Schein, MOH Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, IBM, UBS, Premier U.S, Tyson, Prudential Financial, Jefferies, Prudential, CNBC, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Molina Healthcare, Pinnacle West, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty, Business Machines Corp, Healthcare, Progressive Corp, Pinnacle West Capital Corp, TSN Tyson Foods, Business Machines Corp IBM, Target Premier U.S, Tyson Foods Inc TSN, Prudential Financial Inc

☆ JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic braces for 20% market plunge, delivers recession warning
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is bracing for a 20% sell-off to hit the S&P 500. According to the Institutional Investor hall-of-famer, high interest rates are creating a breaking point for stocks — and choosing cash at a 5.5% return in money market and short-term Treasurys is a key protection strategy right now. "I'm not sure how we're going to avoid it [recession] if we stay at this level of interest rates," the firm's chief market strategist and global research co-head told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Thursday. He indicates a near-term bounce is still possible because a lot hinges on economic reports over the next few months. It could be 20% downside."

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, I'm, CNBC's, Kolanovic Organizations: Institutional, famer

☆ JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic on recession watch, braces for 20% plunge in stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic on recession watch, braces for 20% plunge in stocksMarko Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chief Market Strategist and Co-Head of Global Research, joins 'Fast Money' to talk his recession prediction, Where the Federal Reserve stands with interest rates, mega-cap performance compared to mid-sized stocks and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Global Research, Federal

☆ Here's where Wall Street strategists see the stock market headed next after a brutal September
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks are coming off a brutal two-month stretch, and Wall Street is divided on what comes next. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is coming off back-to-back rocky months, and Wall Street is split on what could be coming next for investors. And Jeff Gundlach, the billionaire founder of DoubleLine Capital, said Tuesday that Treasury yields suggest it's time to start worrying about a severe downturn.

Persons: Stocks, Fundstrat, —, Quincy Krosby, Jay Woods, Woods, jitters, Kevin McCarthy, Gene Goldman, Goldman, Tom Lee, Lee, Marko Kolanovic, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Freedom Capital, Treasury, Cetera Investment Management, CNBC, DoubleLine

☆ The one thing in markets everyone should be watching
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The 10-Year US Treasury yield is arguably the most important thing to watch right now for investors. The 10-Year yield has soared to levels not seen since 2007, and that's having a big impact on stock prices. Here's what you need to know about what bond yields are doing to markets and the economy. Rising bond yields are also thrashing the bond market, as bond prices fall when yields rise. AdvertisementAdvertisementHigher interest rates also means higher credit card rates, leading to a rise in delinquencies in recent months.

Persons: —, It's, Ray Dalio, Bill Ackman, Bill Gross, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Treasury, Service, Treasury Bond ETF, Fed, Pershing, CNBC Locations: delinquencies

☆ Stock market carnage isn't over yet as soaring bond yields send investors into 'extreme fear' mode
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market isn't going to recover from its recent rout soon as three headwinds remain, according to JPMorgan. The bank highlighted that valuations are still too high, and interest rates are too restrictive. Investors have entered "extreme fear" mode as interest rates surge to a new cycle-high. "Our cautious outlook will likely remain in place as long as interest rates remain deeply restrictive, valuations expensive, and the overhang of geopolitical risks persists," JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said. The CNN Fear & Greed Index has entered "extreme fear" territory over the past week as investors fret about high interest rates.

Persons: —, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Service, CNN

☆ What are zero-day options? Here's how they're taking over a key corner of the stock market and why they could pose a big risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It's been one year since the CBOE launched zero-day options contracts and they're starting to take over the stock market. Zero-day options expire the same day they are issued and they now make up 50% of S&P 500 options activity. A new ETF has launched utilizing the options contracts, and with enough scale they could jolt the stock market in a big way. AdvertisementAdvertisementThere's a new options trading product that is taking over Wall Street, and it could ultimately pose a big risk for the stock market as it gains in scale. Defiance recently launched two ETFs that write puts via zero-day options on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Persons: It's, —, CBOE, JPMorgan, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Nasdaq Locations: YOLO

☆ JPMorgan’s top stock guru stays bearish on market, sees headwinds for any risk asset
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"This reasoning is based on market valuations (fundamentals), investor positioning, and various macro and geopolitical considerations." Higher-for-longer interest rates from the Federal Reserve have stoked investor worry on Wall Street. Kolanovic is JPMorgan's chief global market strategist who gained notoriety for correctly calling the post-pandemic rebound in stocks, something very few on Wall Street anticipated. In the near term, the strategist believes stocks could fall further until some of these headwinds subside. Most Wall Street strategists expect the S & P 500 to rebound above 4,300 before the year is out, according to the exclusive CNBC PRO strategist survey .

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, CNBC PRO

☆ The risk of a crisis over the next 6 to 12 months is rising as high rates bite and the stock market's AI rally fades, JPMorgan's quant chief says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's a lot that could go wrong in the stock market that investors are not fully appreciating. That's according to JPMorgan's quant chief, Marko Kolanovic, who is worried about high interest rates. "We think there is now a higher likelihood of a crisis over the next six to 12 months," he said. For Kolanovic to turn more bullish on the stock market, he needs to see two things — and they have nothing to do with the promise of AI. Instead, he wants to see interest rates fall around the world, as well as a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in Russia and China.

Persons: JPMorgan's, Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russia, China

☆ The 2023 stock market rally is over as the Fed isn't easing anytime soon and a hard landing of the economy is inevitable, JPMorgan's chief stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rally in the S&P 500 is capped through the rest of the year, JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos said. That's because there are a litany of negative factors heading into 2024 that will weigh on equities. The strength of the US economy has only postponed a coming recession, not averted one, he added. Stocks could tumble 15% even in the event of a mild downturn, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic predicted in a recent note. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are now pricing in a 42% chance the Fed will raise rates another 25 basis-points in November.

Persons: JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos, Dubravko Lakos, Lakos, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, CNBC, Investors, Bank of America, New, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Consumers have spent all of their excess savings from the pandemic. That's just one reason why stocks are poised to fall, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US consumers have spent all of their excess savings from the pandemic, according to JPMorgan. The bank highlighted the softening of the consumer as one reason why stocks are poised to continue their decline. In a Thursday note, he said consumers have spent down the entirety of their excess savings from the pandemic, which at one point totaled more than $2 trillion. A softening consumer is just one reason why he is preaching continued caution towards the stock market amid its 5% decline, according to the note. Another headwind for the stock market is the fact that rich valuations make buybacks less attractive for companies when they're funded by debt, he added.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Germany

☆ More firms on Wall Street are bracing for a stock sell-off. Here's why JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and others say the market's huge gains are at risk.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Some Wall Street analysts are sounding the alarm for a coming sell-off in stocks. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys its best year since 1927, gaining 18% from January. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys one of its best years since 1927, largely thanks to Wall Street's excitement for artificial intelligence. But he sees the overall S&P 500 ending the year at 4,600-4,800, above current levels.

Persons: Eduardo Munoz JPMorgan, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Shannon Stapleton Wells, Scott Wren, Wren, Brendan McDermid, Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, REUTERS, Reuters BlackRock, Rosenberg Research, Dow Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ 'People give up on recession just as it arrives': Don't count out an economic downturn just yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Despite solid economic data, some Wall Street strategists are sticking with their gloomy outlook for the economy and stocks. But don't count out a decline just yet: "People give up on recession just as it arrives." Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Société GénéraleEdwards isn't the only bear on Wall Street. And as Edwards highlighted, a decline in profits usually leads to an uptick in layoffs, which could ultimately hurl this economy into a recession.

Persons: Albert Edwards, Greedflation, Edwards, Société Générale Edwards, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Service, Survey, Loan, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ JPMorgan's top equity guru says buy more government bonds, avoid stocks as a recession looms at the turn of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors should buy more government bonds to brace for the likelihood of a recession hitting later this year, JPMorgan's top equity strategist says. Investors are increasingly deserting defensive positions as more market participants expect a soft landing scenario for the economy. But JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said investors are mistaken and continues to see a year-end recession as his base case outlook. "This benign and complacent pricing of recession risk, along with increasing signs that a credit cycle is emerging, makes us turn more negative on corporate bonds and more positive on government bonds," Kolanovic wrote to clients Monday. "We therefore trim our allocation to credit by shifting two percentage points away from corporate bonds and into government bonds in our model portfolio," Kolanovic wrote.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Nasdaq Locations: 4Q23

☆ It's not just tech. FOMO is in full swing across the stock market, and investors are about to be disappointed.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market has entered full FOMO territory this year, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. And investor enthusiasm is not just concentrated in tech stocks, with broad market valuations appearing stretched. "There is complacency being built into stocks with VIX at the lows of its range," Kolanovic said. That's not cheap, as the historical forward P/E of the index is 15.3x, meaning that current valuations represent a 10% premium. "FOMO is in full swing, there is complacency being built into stocks with VIX at the lows of its range," Kolanovic said in a Monday note.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, it's, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: VIX, Service, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Locations: Wall, Silicon, 17.4x, Japan

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